Mr. Twenty-Three Percent

Although Ehud Olmert and Kadima “won” the election, it is not the mandate they sought.  The Jerusalem Post reports:

Before the network broadcast their exit polls, Kadima strategist Lior Horev told The Jerusalem Post that anything over 33 seats would be considered a victory, and anything under 32 would be considered a defeat.

Kadima ended up with only 28 seats.  That leads to two contradictory possibilities in the attempt to form a government with the necessary 61-seat coalition (a majority of the 120-seat Knesset):

The outcome of the exit polls set up a possible center-left bloc of 62 seats, consisting of pro-disengagement parties Kadima 28, Labor 20, Meretz 4, and the Arab parties 10.

But since it is unlikely that the Arab parties will be invited into a governing coalition, the “center-left” block is actually only 52.

Another alternative is a right-wing bloc, made of Likud (11), National Union-NRP (9), Israel Beiteinu (12), Shas (13) and United Torah Judaism (6). It garnered a combined representation of 51 seats . . .

So the left has 52 seats, the right has 51 seats, and each side needs another 9-10 seats to form a government.  In terms of the Jewish vote, this is a country split down the middle.

Moshe Z. Matitya, a commenter at the Jerusalem Post article, thinks that:

If Bibi and Lieberman can make a sweet enough offer to the Pensioners, and get Shas and Agudah on board as well, then they still have enough to form a blocking coalition against Olmert.  They’ll have to give the Pensioners everything they want and more, though, because Olmert will try to do the same.  It seems to me that the future of this country is about to be determined by a bidding war to buy the Pensioners.

But the Pensioners have only 7 seats, not enough to give either side a governing majority.  At Israel National News, there is this report:

Haaretz commentator Ari Shavit, who although supportive of the Gaza withdrawal has been increasingly apprehensive about Kadima’s plans for large-scare withdrawals said, "Ehud Olmert did not receive a mandate to carry out a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. . . .

Though Kadima performed much worse than all polls projected and is the smallest party to ever enjoy the status of the largest Knesset party, Olmert said it received [a] mandate for its vision. "The people have spoken clearly, they want Kadima," Olmert boomed, adding that the dream of the Greater Land of Israel must be repudiated “and Jews, with much pain, must be evacuated.”

The people have spoken, but not clearly.  Olmert’s party received 23% of the vote (28 of 120 seats).  Just to get to 52 seats, it needs the far left party Meretz.  Whatever it gives up to get the remaining nine seats it needs is not going to be pretty. 

So the election turns out not to be the referendum that many anticipated.  The New York Times reports that:

Mr. Olmert says his aim in the next four years will be to set Israel‘s borders with the Palestinians, unilaterally if necessary, and called the election a referendum on his intentions.  But with Kadima’s smaller total, he may find it necessary to have a national referendum on the issue — something Mr. Sharon always rejected — in order to carry it out with less protest, or even violence.

It seems like a better idea than deciding the country’s national security policies by buying off the Pensioners.