The Iraq Study Group: The Movie

In Recommendation 13, the “Iraq Study Group Report” favors a “sustained commitment” by the U.S. to “a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts.”   

I believe that something like this was tried during the 1990s, but I can’t swear to it since I haven’t read every excruciating word in Dennis Ross’s 840 page book, which details the non-stop efforts over an entire decade to meet the ISG’s thoughtful recommendation.  But I do know that the story did not have a happy ending.

In Recommendation 14, the Iraq Study Group nevertheless recommends that this start all over again — “as soon as possible,” with “unconditional” meetings under the auspices of the U.S. or the Quartet designed “to negotiate peace as was done at the Madrid Conference in 1991.” The ISG wants everyone to immediately “address the key final status issues of borders, settlements, Jerusalem, the right of return, and the end of conflict.”

But there is a significant diplomatic problem with this recommendation. Aside from the fact that we have already seen this movie (the 1991-92 episodes were directed by Jim Baker) — and it wasn’t good — there is another problem with the Baker Group’s recommendation.  The problem is somewhat akin to wanting to re-make a movie but not having all the movie rights. 

More specifically, the problem is that the United States formally assured Israel, in 2004, that it would not do this. 

People commonly refer to Israel’s total withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 as a “unilateral” one, but in fact the withdrawal was part of a formal deal between Israel and the United States.  In an exchange of letters between Israel and the United States dated April 14, 2004, the U.S. expressly assured Israel that it would not support any peace plan other than the road map, with its three-phase, “performance-based” requirements, which deferred all final status issues until Phase III — after the Palestinians had demonstrated the ability to control terrorism (in Phase I) and live side by side in peace (in Phase II). 

The ISG does not recommend that the Palestinians comply with their existing agreement, or that the U.S. observe its existing commitment.  Instead, the ISG recommends immediate, comprehensive, unconditional negotiations on all final status issues, with no fulfillment of prior Palestinian agreements or U.S. compliance with its formal commitment to one of the parties.

Apparently being a “realist” means you don’t have to carry out your end of a deal.  And how, exactly, will a demonstrated unwillingness to stand by a commitment to Israel help us in Iraq?

UPDATE: George W. Bush at his press conference today with Tony Blair, in response to a question about spending political capital on the Palestinian issue:

“Our goal is to help the Abbas government form a government that adheres to the principles of the Quartet. We can’t abandon the principles of the Quartet just because it may sound easy. You can’t do that. When nations lay out principles, you’ve got to adhere to those principles — just like when we laid out a vision, you adhere to that vision.”