The Next Installment of History

Bernard Lewis writes on “Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East” in the May/June 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs.

He dates the first stage of the modern era back to Napoleon’s invasion of

Egypt

in 1798.   The second stage of political upheaval in the

Middle East

can also “be dated with precision.”

In 1940, the government of

France

surrendered to Nazi Germany.  A new collaborationist government was formed and established in a watering place called

Vichy

, and General Charles de Gaulle moved to

London

and set up a Free French committee.

The French empire was beyond the reach of the Germans at that point, and the governors of the French colonies and dependencies were free to decide: they could stay with

Vichy

or rally to de Gaulle. 

Vichy

was the choice of most of them, and in particular the rulers of the French-mandated territory of Syria-Lebanon, in the heart of the Arab East. This meant that Syria-Lebanon was wide open to the Nazis, who moved in and made it the main base of their propaganda and activity in the Arab world.

It was at that time that the ideological foundations of what later became the Baath Party were laid, with the adaptation of Nazi ideas and methods to the Middle Eastern situation.

After World War II, the “leaders of the Baath Party easily switched from the Nazi model to the communist model, needing only minor adjustments.”

This was a party not in the Western sense of an organization built to win elections and votes. It was a party in the Nazi and Communist sense, part of the government apparatus particularly concerned with indoctrination, surveillance, and repression. The Baath Party in

Syria

and the separate Baath Party in

Iraq

continued to function along these lines.

Since 1940 and again after the arrival of the Soviets, the

Middle East

has basically imported European models of rule: fascist, Nazi, and communist.

But Lewis says that “to speak of dictatorship as being the immemorial way of doing things in that part of the world is simply untrue” since the current pattern of autocratic and despotic rule “is alien, with no roots in either the classical Arab or the Islamic past.”

The type of regime that was maintained by Saddam Hussein — and that continues to be maintained by some other rulers in the Muslim world — is modern, indeed recent, and very alien to the foundations of Islamic civilization.  There are older rules and traditions on which the peoples of the

Middle East

can build.

Lewis concludes that the Iraqi election in January was “a truly momentous achievement, and its impact can already be seen in neighboring Arab and other countries.”

[T]he Iraqi election may prove a turning point in Middle Eastern history no less important than the arrival of General Bonaparte and the French Revolution in

Egypt

more than two centuries ago. . .

At the present time there are two fears concerning the possibility of establishing a democracy in

Iraq

.  One is the fear that it will not work, a fear expressed by many in the

United States

and one that is almost a dogma in Europe; the other fear, much more urgent in ruling circles in the

Middle East

, is that it work.

Clearly, a genuinely free society in

Iraq

would constitute a mortal threat to many of the governments of the region, including both

Washington

‘s enemies and some of those seen as

Washington

‘s allies.

Finally, Lewis sketches a historical trend that covers at least the last 60 years, and that is on-going:

The end of World War II opened the way for democracy in the former Axis powers. The end of the Cold War brought a measure of freedom and a movement toward democracy in much of the former Soviet domains. With steadfastness and patience, it may now be possible at last to bring both justice and freedom to the long-tormented peoples of the

Middle East

.

While some are consumed with exit strategies or arguments about why the

U.S.

went in, a broad historical story is playing out — beginning with the defeat of fascism, then the defeat of communism, and now the current fight against an Arab totalitarianism that grew from the earlier European models. Placed in that historical context, what has happened over the last two years is stunning.

History has not ended, but viewed with a wider lens, may have a direction.